Evaluating the impact of anti-tobacco legislation in Spain with a gender perspective: a synthetic control approach

This study investigates the application of the synthetic control method for the evaluation of public health policies, specifically assessing the impact of the 2010 anti-smoking legislation in Spain. This policy, which represented a paradigmatic shift, aimed to reduce smoking prevalence and its multiple consequences for public health. Utilizing data on tobacco consumption prevalence across various countries alongside key predictors of consumption, we examine the effectiveness of the legislation in reducing smoking rates. To achieve this, the synthetic control method is employed to construct a 'synthetic Spain' from a weighted combination of countries within a donor pool. This counterfactual represents the smoking prevalence that would have been observed in Spain in the absence of the law. The empirical results demonstrate that the legislation successfully reduced tobacco consumption. However, its gender-differentiated impact suggests the necessity of implementing gender-responsive regulatory frameworks.