Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
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Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling

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Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling

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dc.contributor.author Miró,Juan Javier
dc.contributor.author Estrela Navarro, María José
dc.contributor.author Olcina Cantos, Jorge
dc.contributor.author Martin-Vide, Javier
dc.date.accessioned 2022-01-10T11:34:11Z
dc.date.available 2022-01-10T11:34:11Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10550/81259
dc.description.abstract The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem and are of particular interest regarding climate change. These basins are very vulnerable to a possible scenario of decreasing water resources. Recent studies on historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss of precipitation in their headwaters, especially in the case of the Júcar river. The aim of the present study is to perform climate projections for the precipitation variable for several future periods (2021-2040, 2051-2070, 2081-2100) and emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within the Júcar and Segura River Basin authorities. For this purpose, a set of CMIP5 global models have been used, as well as the CDRD-HR-EIP-1955-2016 database, as a source of local observed information. This database comprises nearly 900 precipitation series in both basins and has been used in recent studies to determine historic trends of change in these basins. A statistical downscaling of the global models for all available observed series has been applied using the LARS-WG method. The results, although variable according to the CMIP5 model used, show the continuation of the patterns of precipitation change in the future, as already observed in the historical series. The results also predict a clear reduction in precipitation in the long term. However, torrential rainfall tends to increase in the coastal areas in relation to that observed in the short-term predictions. These results, due to their high spatial resolution, are of great interest for their use in small-scale hydrological and spatial planning (regional and local), which is one of the current challenges of climate modeling.
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Atmosphere, 2021, vol. 12, num. 879, p. 1-28
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source Miró,Juan Javier Estrela Navarro, María José Olcina Cantos, Jorge Martin-Vide, Javier 2021 Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling Atmosphere 12 879 1 28
dc.subject Meteorologia
dc.title Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.date.updated 2022-01-10T11:34:11Z
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070879
dc.identifier.idgrec 149582

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